Tourism Adaptation Roadmap July 2022 Progress Update
What we have done so far
June has been a busy month. We delivered our second workshop on scenarios and organised the leadership group away day to help shape the te ao Maori framework.
On the 7th June, 31 members of the TEG joined for the scenarios workshop to identify the key large-scale driving forces and how they manifest under each of the four scenarios (Pokanoa, Hiahia, Whare wera and Tōmuri). The ten top driving forces were agreed by the TEG and these were then used to build the scenarios looking out to a 2050 time horizon. The PwC secretariat have started to create more fulsome narratives for each scenario based on climate data provided by NIWA. These were presented to the LG and the co-chairs for discussion. A brief insight into each scenario is provided below.
Tōmuri (too little too late) 2050
Tōmuri describes a world in which climate policy remains a low priority for Governments. Although there is some policy implemented to reduce emissions, it is weak and targeted at ‘easy-to-decarbonise’ sectors such as energy production. More challenging sectors, like agriculture and aviation, are not deeply decarbonised. The goals of the Paris Agreement are not met.
The physical impacts of climate change are significant in Aotearoa New Zealand and worse in some regions compared to others. This has impacted the viability of tourism in some regions, but created opportunity in others.
Pokonoa (disorderly) 2050
Pokanoa describes a world in which the goals of the Paris Agreement are met, but only after a delayed and therefore rapid and disruptive transition. Emissions continued to rise until 2030. But around 2030, countries around the world, led by China and the USA, take unprecedented steps to reduce their emissions on a track to net zero by 2050.
New Zealand’s tourism sector rebounded strongly after Covid-19 but disruptive and uncoordinated policy has since created real challenges for the industry.
Hiahia (orderly) 2050
In Hiahia, strong and immediate action was implemented in the early 2020s to tackle the critical environmental and socioeconomic issues facing the world and reach net zero 2050. The world has succeeded in meeting the temperature goals of the Paris
Agreement and has progressed towards a number of other Sustainable Development Goals.
The post-Covid-19 recovery was centered around meeting the targets set out in the Climate Change Response Act and ensuring a just transition to net zero. New Zealand showed how large-scale transformations can be done with the core intention of protecting the most vulnerable parts of society and reducing inequalities.
Whare wera (hot house) 2050
Whare wera describes a world in which emissions have continued to rise unabated and is now facing severe and disruptive physical impacts of climate change. The Paris Agreement has not unsucceeded and warming is at 2.4°C above pre-industrial and rising.
While Aotearoa New Zealand warms more slowly compared to the rest of the world. Aotearoa has been able to reduce emissions, but only a small number of other countries have.
Te ao Māori framework development
On 28th June the Co-Chairs and Leadership Group met at Te Mara a Tāne - Zealandia in Wellington for a workshop to discuss the key elements and concepts for the te ao Maori framework. The Circle was joined by the Leadership Group heading the Industry Transformation Plan (ITP) to ensure alignment and enriched discussion.
The day was led by globally-recognised Māori storyteller Joe Harawira. A walk through a very wet Zealandia enabled the group to be fully immersed in te taiao from the outset. The group appreciated the fence line around parts of Zealandia that has allowed the biodiversity to regenerate over the last 20 years.
Matai Joe brought together the spiritual and physical worlds and placed mauri (life force/essence) and wairua (spirit) of te taiao (nature) at the heart of our kaupapa. We had a korero (discussion) around five key questions:
We were able to capture a rich data set from the day which the Secretariat will use to develop a draft te ao Māori framework for the workstream for discussion at the next Leadership Group meeting on 23rd July.
