Natural Capital Regional Resilience

About this workstream

This project will help the Bay of Plenty protect itself from climate change and the degradation of nature by helping the region to  understand its vulnerabilities, and showing where further action and support is needed. This workstream is a first-in-the-world attempt to take a systems approach to understanding the links between nature and society in a particular region, and then what climate change will do to that region.  What we learn in the Bay of Plenty will provide a methodology to help other regions in New Zealand prepare themselves for the impacts of climate change. 

There are several factors which add to the complexity and challenge of this workstream.  Firstly, the past is no longer a good predictor for the future, given the rapidity of change caused by the twin crises in climate and nature.  Secondly,  understanding where the tipping points are – at what threshold do certain economic activities become unviable?  

Overall, the Natural Capital Regional Resilience work will allow us to translate climate science into action, helping us to understand operational, financial, commercial, social and nature-related implications for the region. This will then highlight the case for further action and support.

Co-Chairs

  • Fiona McTavish

    CEO

    Bay of Plenty Regional Council

  • Simon Limmer

    CEO

    Indevin Group

  • Pā Ropata

    Founder

    Tīwaiwaka

Co-Chair Biographies

  • Fiona joined the Bay of Plenty Regional Council in 2012. Prior to local government, Fiona spent 20 years in and around central government in Wellington including roles in education and health. She has also worked in the private sector as an international consultant and General Manager for the New Zealand Institute of Chartered Accountants.

    Fiona held the role of General Manager Strategy and Science at the Regional Council for more than six years and in 2018, Fiona was appointed to her current role as Chief Executive of the Regional Council, a Director of the Quayside Group of companies and Priority One.

    Fiona is also committed to improving education outcomes in schools and is an elected trustee on two school boards and recently stepped down as a trustee for TeachFirst New Zealand.

  • Simon was appointed Chief Executive of Indevin Group Limited in early 2024. He is responsible for leading the company, the delivery of strategy and financial performance, and engaging with customers, staff, suppliers, and shareholders.

    Simon comes with deep commercial experience in the food, manufacturing, and service sectors both here in New Zealand and in several of the key international markets in which we operate.

  • Pā Ropata is a prominent Rongoā Māori practitioner, well respected for his work in the restoration of Rongoā Māori practise and traditional knowledge of native plants and medicines in Aotearoa New Zealand.

    Pā became interested in the New Zealand bush at a young age after watching his mother use traditional plants and herbs for health and wellbeing, based on traditional knowledge brought to New Zealand from her homeland of Dalmatia. In the 1970s he was posted as a Catholic Priest to Whanganui and it was there, on the river, under the guidance of prominent Kaumatua and Kuia, that he started to gain the knowledge he is known for today, propagating and growing native plants and their traditional uses.

    An alumnus of the University of Waikato, Pā graduated with a Bachelor of Education in 1996. He followed this with a Master of Social Sciences in 2000.

    In 1999 he co-founded Tane’s Tree Trust alongside University of Waikato biologist Emeritus Professor Warwick Silvester. This Trust encourages the use of New Zealand indigenous tree species for biodiversity, landscape enhancement and cultural benefits.

    Since 2006 Pā has also been involved with Ngā Whenua Rāhui, a Te Papa Atawhai Department of Conservation funding programme that aims to support the protection of Māori land and indigenous ecosystems and to preserve Mātauranga Māori.

    Pā is a long-time member and former chair of the Bay of Plenty Conservation Board, a founding chair of the Kaimai-Mamaku Catchments Forum, and a life member of the New Zealand Association of Medical Herbalists.

    Pā has championed Tīwaiwaka, the six principles of which create a philosophy for our approach to life and restoration of our natural world. At his home on the outskirts of Tauranga he has planted a rongoā garden to help students learn plant identification, and he and his wife Lyndel run a small nursery for the Waitao Landcare Group.

    Pā has become a sought-after Rongoā Māori practitioner and advisor and travels around Aotearoa sharing his knowledge to support research, policy and strategy initiatives aligned with Rongoā Māori.

    Pā has written two books on land regeneration, with one of them, Rongoā Māori: a Practical Guide to Traditional Māori Medicine, selling more than 10,000 copies.

FAQs

 What is Natural Capital Regional Resilience?

Natural Capital Regional Resilience (NCR2) is a project undertaken by The Aotearoa Circle, who have commissioned  PwC NZ. We call it a workstream. Work on this started in March 2024. The aim is to produce a detailed analysis of the impact of climate and nature change in one region of New Zealand.  With this, we will be able to understand critical vulnerabilities of that region to climate change and the degradation of nature. This will then highlight where and how we can strengthen resilience and adaptation.  It will also provide a methodology that can potentially be applied to other regions of Aotearoa.

What’s the point?  What will your chosen region get out of it?

All regions in New Zealand are threatened by climate change and the degradation of our natural resources.  But all regions are different.  They have different climates and different geographies, as well as different community values, key industries and different population densities.  By focusing on one region, we can produce an analysis that is more specific and more tailored which means the solutions are also more specific and tailored.  It is not a “one size fits all” approach. 

The chosen region, in this case the Bay of Plenty, can use the work we produce to help them plan and adapt.  They can identify where they are vulnerable.  The work may also help them identify priority areas for adaptation investment.  The work itself will also bring key stakeholders together in the region.  It can help connect people and organisations to work together to fight the effects of climate change and identify where nature needs to be protected and restored. 

Why did you choose Bay of Plenty?

The region had the characteristics we were looking for to pilot our initial methodology.  The Regional Council has a strong focus on the issues of climate adaptation and mitigation and they are familiar with the systems approach we are using for this work.  In their words, they want their region to “adapt and thrive” and they see this work as a useful tool in that endeavor.

What is the process?

The process is in six phases:

  1. Identify the region and the stakeholders that should be involved.

  2. Map the regional system, including interdependencies between the climate, nature and society.

  3. Identify climate and nature drivers and critical thresholds.

  4. Carry out scenario analysis in order to project when certain critical thresholds may be crossed.

  5. Assess various solutions, including nature-based solutions, for mitigating and adapting.

  6. Draw conclusions and produce a report.

What will the report include?

The report will include:

  • An explanation of the methodology used, and steps carried out for the analysis (i.e. a scalable and replicable methodology for future use).

  • A description of the three systems approach scenarios developed to test the resilience of the regional fabric.

  • Assessment of the critical thresholds and their time to emergence, including a description of the financial and economic modelling undertaken.

  • A set of conclusions and opportunities for future investment based on mitigation, adaptation and nature-based solutions.

What does it NOT cover?

No analysis can do everything.  There is a limit to how much detail we can provide. We will focus on the most material components of the region’s system.  We will focus on the physical (not transition) climate risks to the region.

Who is involved?

The Aotearoa Circle is commissioning this work.  The Circle is a non-profit leadership organisation.  It is a partnership that brings together over 50 New Zealand private and public sector organisations with the purpose of restoring Aotearoa’s natural capital for future generations. 

PwC is a global professional services firm.  The PwC NZ team brings the climate science, scenario analysis and project facilitation experience to this project, alongside skills in data processing, modelling and analysis.

At the regional level, the Bay of Plenty Regional Council is helping to coordinate local efforts on this work.

Why is The Circle doing this work?

The Circle wants to do this work because it is central to why we exist - to restore natural capital for future generations, helping nature to thrive in Aotearoa.   

How much will it cost ratepayers?

This work will cost ratepayers nothing. 

Who will get to see the information you collect?

The information will first be shared with the local contributors to the work and then it will be shared publicly for everyone to see.

Interested in being involved?

Part of this work involves consulting with key stakeholders in the Bay of Plenty community. If you are interested in being a part of this work, please get in touch