September 2022 Agri-Adaptation Workstream Update
What we have done so far
August has been a busy month for the project. We held the second workshop to develop the sector level climate change scenarios on the 12th of August. Members of the TEG joined the workshop to identify the key large-scale driving forces and how they manifest under each of the three scenarios; orderly, disorderly, and hot house. The twelve top driving forces were agreed by the TEG and refined by the co-chairs and LG. These were used to build the climate change scenarios, with three temperature pathways looking out to a 2050 time horizon. The PwC secretariat has started to create more fulsome narratives for each scenario based on climate data provided by NIWA. A brief insight into each scenario is provided below.
Orderly 2050
In the Orderly scenario, strong and immediate action was implemented in the early 2020s to tackle the critical environmental and socioeconomic issues facing the world and reach net zero by 2050. The world has succeeded in meeting the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement and has progressed towards a number of other Sustainable Development Goals. Early action allows New Zealand to avoid negative consequences down the track around competition for land and water use. Land use is integrated to optimise production, and there is clear policy, which values and protects productive soils. New Zealand showed how large-scale transformations can be done with the core intention of protecting the most vulnerable parts of society and reducing inequalities.
Disorderly 2050
Disorderly describes a world in which the goals of the Paris Agreement are met, but only after a delayed and therefore rapid and disruptive transition. Emissions continue to rise until 2030 and then countries around the world take unprecedented steps to reduce their emissions on track to net zero by 2050. The worst physical impacts have been avoided but the West Coast sees more intense rainfall and Northland has higher risk of drought. A late and fast transition sees poor stop-gap solutions, such as the shift to forestry, and rapid changes to expectations around sustainable farming.
Hot house 2050
Hot house describes a world in which emissions have continued to rise unabated and is now facing severe and disruptive physical impacts of climate change. The Paris Agreement has not succeeded and warming is at 2.4°C above pre-industrial and rising. New Zealand warms more slowly compared to the rest of the world and has been able to reduce emissions, but only a small number of other countries have. As a result, tensions arise over the lack of water control and there are challenges accessing capital due to the extent of the physical impacts of climate change.
Scenarios reflect the range of plausible pathways. We will develop three climate scenarios for the agriculture sector as agreed
Planning is underway for the final Opportunities & Roadmap workshop for the workstream. The same workshop will be conducted face-to-face across the following three locations and dates:
Tāmaki Makaurau (Auckland): Friday 30th September
Pōneke (Wellington): Friday 7th October
Ōtautahi (Christchurch): Thursday 13th October
It will be great to bring together the co-chairs, leadership group, and technical experts at these workshops to get the most out of our mahi and ensure a practical and forward focused adaptation roadmap is developed.
On the 29th of September, the Aotearoa Circle Web Series will present a progress update on the Agriculture Adaptation Roadmap. Keep your eye out for more details about this webinar!
The Secretariat is looking forward to an exciting and busy few months ahead - see below for key upcoming dates
