Driving Change – What Will Climate Change Do to Our Transport Sector?
Transport Sector Climate Change Scenarios – Final Update, June 2024
The Aotearoa Circle has just published a set of Climate Change Scenarios for the New Zealand Transport sector, imagining a range of possible futures, from the dysfunctional to the innovative.
This major piece of work was done with KPMG acting as secretariat and authors. KPMG Partner, Sustainable Value, Alec Tang and his team organised and managed the Working Group and Wider Interest Group, bringing together representatives from a range of organisations across the transport sector. These included Kiwirail, Tourism Holdings, Auckland Council, CentrePort, Z Energy, Air New Zealand, Mondiale and many others (a full list can be found in the report here). We want to extend our thanks to all the participants in this work, who pulled together a compelling and useful report for the sector and beyond.
The scenarios are intended to be challenging but plausible, in line with the expectations of organisations like the XRB (External Reporting Board) and the FMA (Financial Markets Authority). They are designed to help develop a common vision of what our transport sector could look like under different climate change futures and to help organisations think about what they will need to do, to adapt and survive.
The grimmest scenario, Bypass to Breakdown, imagines an Aotearoa struggling to cope with a global average temperature rise of 3.9C by 2100. It paints a picture of cities overwhelmed by extreme weather events, transport inequality, stress and disruption.
The most optimistic scenario, Fully Charged, images a world where global average temperature rises have been limited to 1.4C by 2100 (after a peak of 1.6C in 2050). In this scenario, transport is high tech and low carbon and as a result, lower cost. Urban centres are populous, compact and connected. Aviation and shipping are also low carbon and rural communities are connected by multiple electrified options.
We know our transport sector is a vital part of our economy and our community cohesion. Taking a bold look at several possible futures is intended to help us think and focus our efforts on the mitigation and adaptation required.
You can hear more about the report and some of the tough conversations that need to happen to keep our transport system heading in the right direction, by listening to the webinar we held for the report’s launch. Guest speakers included Billie Moore, CEO of New Zealand Airports Association, Abbie Bull, Head of Community and Sustainability at Z Energy and Aaron Saunders, CFO of Turners Automotive Group.